The most-traded SHFE tin contract price fluctuated upward, with tight supply providing solid support. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of October 31, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) showed a fluctuating upward trend. During the morning session, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated upward from 283,000 yuan/mt, closing at 285,270 yuan/mt by midday, up 0.2% from the previous day's settlement price.

From a macro perspective, the market is digesting the impact of the US Fed's policy moves. Although the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, Powell's cautious stance on another rate cut in December triggered a rebound in the US dollar, putting some pressure on tin prices. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the latest developments in China-US relations and changes in the global economic outlook, as these macro factors are becoming the main drivers of short-term tin price fluctuations. The LME tin market also exhibited a fluctuating trend. On October 31, the opening price for LME electric tin was $35,825/mt. SHFE tin performed more strongly compared to LME tin.

Overall, tin prices are currently caught between a tight supply-demand balance and macro pressures. Tight supply provides solid support for tin prices, while demand-side divergence and macro uncertainties limit upside room. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the range of 284,000-289,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon session. Investors should closely monitor progress on production resumptions in Myanmar, policy changes in Indonesia, and actual downstream procurement.